As 2024 winds down and the dawn of a new year approaches, there are several topics (that aren’t predictions or resolutions) I think people will be talking about in 2025.

Future budgets show need for honest discussions

One topic that needs to be discussed in 2025 is an honest assessment and examination of the city budget. New Mayor Danny Avula will benefit from bringing in an experienced CAO, because the forecasts for future budgets will require a steady hand to guide the ship. The city’s general fund budget has grown by 65% since Stoney took office in 2017 (from $542 million to $885 million, with more than half of that coming from real estate taxes).

At a budget presentation in October arguing against a real estate tax rate cut, outgoing-CAO Lincoln Saunders said next year’s budget already faces a $27 million deficit (largely because of collective bargaining, among other things). By 2030, he warned the deficit will rise to $149 million, and the presentation showed that spending would increase by an average of almost 6% per year but revenue will grow by an average of about 3%. 

You don’t need a calculator or a math degree to figure out that means the city isn’t growing fast enough or is spending too much (or both). Remaining on that spiraling trajectory will mean (much) higher real estate taxes if revenues do not increase; alternatively, someone could take a serious look at spending to make sure city money is being spent as wisely as possible to benefit the residents of the city.

The days of spending like drunken sailors and funding priorities for political gain and favors instead of for the people has to end, or this city will soon see property taxes like New Jersey or Illinois. 

This is not an issue that will be solved in 2025, but the discussion needs to start about charting a new course now we have a new captain and crew with experience coming aboard the ship. 

Sheriff election brings immigration and jail conditions to the forefront

Another topic in the coming year has origins back to 2017, when Mayor Stoney implemented a policy to not notify federal immigration officials of someone’s immigration status if they are arrested and detained in the city. Mayor Avula has pledged to continue Stoney’s policy.

(However, it is worth noting after the 2022 mass shooting hoax at Dogwood Dell was exposed, which came after a lot of media appearances by the Mayor and then-Police Chief Smith, the two men in custody from Guatemala were not charged by the city and turned over to federal officials; one man is believed to have been deported and the other was sentenced to 16 months in January 2024 on a gun charge and will face a deportation hearing after his sentence.)

People who have been arrested and charged by Richmond Police are turned over Sheriff Antoinette Irving, who runs the Richmond Justice Center (aka City Jail) and is independent of City Hall. The election for Sheriff will take place in November, on the heels of numerous news reports in the last few years of inmate deaths, drug smuggling, and staff issues with retention, being overworked and forging records. The field of candidates will likely (hopefully) be competitive, and debates could be spirited about who can best run and fix that organization and facility — while also discussing immigration, as that issue will be closely watched nationally throughout 2025.

New program could help prevent gun violence

Also likely to be talked about will be Mayor Avula’s move to use the Gun Violence Intervention (GVI) program. Mayor Levar Stoney deserves plaudits for lowering many crime stats in recent years, and finally hired the right Police Chief for our city during these times. But while the outgoing mayor claimed to want to use every tool in the toolbox to fight crime, his office rejected the GVI program.

Mayor Avula wants to adopt it, according to his statements on the campaign trail and the interview he gave to VPM’s Richard Meagher where he spoke positively about GVI.

The program has successfully been implemented in dozens of cities, and in many places cut homicides in half through teamwork with community members, law enforcement and social service providers who work to deter violence and provide a supported path for those who want to change. It will be nice to have a Mayor who sees other people’s good ideas and embraces them instead of thinking he is the only one with answers.

New CAO must tackle lingering issues

The voluminous stories from 2024 about the city’s meals tax fiasco and dysfunctional Finance Department will sadly continue early into the new year, as some ongoing issues still have yet to be resolved. 

The administration missed its own July deadline to have all cases resolved, and some still are being revealed.

(Read more on the meals tax situation from the 5x5 newsletter here.)

But with the proper and vigorous national search, an experienced and knowledgeable CAO will change the narrative of these stories from dysfunction into resolution and implement best practices and  standards, as well as install competent leadership in various departments that sorely need it. 

Community outreach remains critical

Another topic I hope is widely discussed is the new Mayor establishing real and regular outreach to the community and its neighborhoods. It could come in the form of a newsletter, regular press discussions, a podcast, following FOIA laws (instead of building walls), and being seen regularly in the community (Twitter and showing up for photo ops don’t count).

Good and transparent government is not possible when those in charge keep everything behind closed doors, and line up all the political ducks (or threats) before ramming though a vote with little input or discussion, which is what we have had for too long.

This year offers Avula a great opportunity to re-establish real community engagement through things like the Neighborhood Teams process that partner City Hall with the people in their communities to identify and solve problems together and make good ideas better.

Stoney’s idea of community “engagement” was top down, where City Hall told you what you needed. Avula has a chance to demonstrate real engagement and partnership by asking people, “What can City Hall do to help make your neighborhood better?” and do it together. President Harry Truman hit the nail on the head when he said, “It is amazing what you can accomplish if you do not care who gets the credit.”