VCU's numbers suggest it is headed to the NCAA tournament. So why are fans worried?

Tournament season starts for the VCU Rams men's basketball team Friday morning at 11:30 a.m., when they face St. Bonaventure in the quarterfinals of the Atlantic 10 tournament in Washington, D.C.

By all accounts, it has been a wildly successful season for the Rams. Senior Max Shulga was named the conference's player of the year, and VCU won 15 of its 16 games at the Siegel Center, in addition to claiming the conference title.

However, fans are nervous about their chances of being selected to the NCAA tournament if the Rams don't win the A-10 tournament this weekend, securing an automatic spot into March Madness.

Here's why...

The NET doesn't lie. Until it does.

Each year, the 31 conference champions are invited to the NCAA tournament. A committee is tasked with selecting the other 37 schools who participate.

One of the major tools they use is a computer ranking referred to as NET. Games are sorted into four quadrants based on how difficult they should be, and results are weighted accordingly.

According to the NET, VCU entered the week as the 32nd-best team in the country.

In the ranking's 8-year history, no team with a NET of 35 or better had been excluded from the tournament — until last year. That's when Indiana State (NET 29) was left out.

The committed noted at the time that Indiana State had not won any games against other tournament-caliber teams.

That same logic will apply this year to VCU, whose best win is against Colorado State, another team stuck on the tournament bubble.

Two ACC wins haven't meant anything

The Rams faced, and defeated, two teams from the bigger ACC conference this year. Normally, that would be enough to get across the finish line.

However, the ACC is having a historically bad season, and VCU's win against Miami (NET 225) is considered about as impressive as its win over William & Mary (NET 216).

VCU struggles to schedule games against top teams, which don't want to travel to the Siegel Center and risk a loss ahead of grueling conference schedules. Thus, they only get a few opportunities a year to prove themselves.

While Indiana State lost twice to tournament teams last year, VCU didn't end up with the opportunity to play any this year. The committee may have to decide whether that's worthy of banishment or not.

The easy path

Of course, if the Rams cut down the nets in D.C. this weekend, the discussion will be moot.

But the caliber of basketball in the conference is high, and the Bonnies, their opening opponents, have already beaten them once this year (VCU won the other meeting, with each team winning on its home court).

If VCU stumbles, it will be one of the most discussed teams until Sunday night's bracket reveal, with basketball fans arguing for their inclusion based on results, or against it based on a lack of quality opponents.