Spring swings continue as we move between frost and warmth
The temperature swings will continue for the next two weeks.
On Thursday, another warm period gets started, with temperatures averaging 10-20 degrees above normal. The humidity will climb, much like it did last weekend, but substantial rain looks to hold north and west of Richmond until Sunday night or Monday.
Weekend worries
Both Saturday and Sunday afternoons will reach the 70s, and Sunday likely gets into the 80s. However, there is one important caution about Saturday.
There is some question about a mass of chilly air sneaking southward down the east side of the Appalachians on Friday afternoon or Friday night, which could result in a cloudier and cooler afternoon on Saturday in Richmond.
When cool air comes in from the northeast, rather than the northwest, it is often referred to as a back-door cold front. Weather systems usually move from west to east across the country. However, during the early spring, the clockwise winds around an area of high pressure in New England can sometimes turn our winds from the northeast, sending cool air southward into Virginia. If that air drags across the cold, early spring waters of the upper Chesapeake Bay, we can also get especially cloudy.
The data over the last couple of days suggests this back-door front will advance southward into Virginia, but not really push much beyond Richmond — giving us room for cautious optimism if you want sunshine and an afternoon in the 70s on Saturday.
After the warmer Sunday, rain will move through late Sunday into Monday, signaling a return to cooler air — from the more traditional direction — for the start of next week.
Frost next week?
Most of next week will be near or cooler than normal, but the serious cold is expected to hold farther north. This would send Richmond into the 30s on Monday and Tuesday nights next week, raising the possibility of some frost. However, it does not look like a legitimate killing freeze is ahead next week.
Once that cooler air retreats for the second half of next week, the data indicate a couple of chilly spells through the middle of the month. After that, temperatures are expected to be near or above normal for the second half of April. All of this indicates that we have probably had our last freeze of the season.
On occasion, Richmond does drop to the freezing mark in early May, but it is rare. The latest occurrence was in the spring of 1966 — on May 11. More recently, in 2020, we dropped to 32 degrees on May 10.
But there is nothing to suggest a night with several hours in the upper 20s is coming over the next few weeks.
