Not surprisingly, a white Christmas in Richmond is rare, especially since the beginning of the 21st century. Climatologically, there is only a six percent chance of a white Christmas in any given year in Richmond — defined as having at least one inch of snow on the ground on Christmas Morning.

But there are different ways to define a white Christmas. Most recently, snow has fallen on Christmas Day, even when there was no snow on the ground during the morning.

The last snow on Christmas

For that, we need to go back to Christmas Day 2010. That morning, there was no snow on the ground. However, during the afternoon, the beginnings of a nor’easter started to take shape over central North Carolina, sending snow northward into Virginia and arriving in Richmond just before 3 p.m. Snow continued for the rest of the calendar day, accumulating just less than three inches before midnight.

Snow continued for most of December 26, and by the time it ended before 1 a.m. on December 27, 4.3 inches had accumulated in Richmond. 

That same storm made bigger headlines elsewhere. As it dramatically intensified near the Outer Banks, it produced 14.2 inches of snow in Norfolk before continuing up the East Coast with more than 10 inches of snow from the Delmarva Peninsula to Maine.

All of that snow on the ground in Richmond melted before New Year’s Eve, marking the end of the seventh coldest December on record since monthly temperature records began in 1880. During that December, 28 of the 31 days were colder than normal, and the average temperature for the entire month was 8.5 degrees colder than normal. 

We have not had a December that cold — or that snowy — since.

The last white Christmas morning

To find snow on the ground at daybreak on Christmas, we only need to go back one year further to 2009.

The two inches on the ground that morning was left over from a storm between December 18-19 that produced 7.4 inches of snow in Richmond. Unlike the 2010 storm, this one fit the classic mold of Virginia snowstorms.

Norfolk did not get snow this time, but most areas in Virginia north and west of Richmond were blanketed in more than 10 inches. Some of the mountain communities in the Western Highlands received upwards of two feet.

During that Christmas afternoon, a consistent southeast wind developed, sending temperatures into the 50s and bringing a windswept rain to Richmond for the afternoon and Christmas night. By the morning of the 26th, the snow on the ground was effectively gone.

Christmas snow records

Since daily weather records began in 1897, Richmond has had 10 Christmas Days with a least 0.1” of snowfall. Before the snow on Christmas afternoon in 2010, measurable snow had only fallen on Christmas Day one other time in the last 40 years — 1993.  

The most snow on Christmas Day came more than a century ago, with 5.1 inches in 1914. Aside from that and 2010, there was only one other time Richmond had more than two inches fall on Christmas Day. And that snowfall was nearly the stuff of storybooks.

After a sunny morning on December 24, the sky began to cloud over on Christmas Eve night in 1962 as the temperature edged into the 20s. Snow began to fall right around midnight and continued until 9 a.m. on Christmas morning.

After accumulating about four inches, the story book ended, as the precipitation changed to freezing rain by midday before finally ending later on Christmas night.

Chance for a white Christmas this year

Prospects are slim for a white Christmas in Richmond in 2024.

A new surge of dry air from the Arctic comes in this weekend. And although a weak disturbance will approach Richmond around the middle of next week, the coldest part of this weekend’s Arctic surge will retreat into New England before that disturbance arrives. 

As a result, the elements to produce snow do not appear in place this year for a white Christmas in Richmond. The best guess for Christmas Day right now is for a relatively uneventful one — a mostly cloudy sky with an afternoon in the 40s.

For those grasping at straws, there is just enough data to be on the lookout for some exceptionally light sleet or freezing rain on Christmas Day, but it is not enough to really worry about right now.

In the shorter term, plan on a dry and cold weekend right before Christmas, with afternoons in the 30s to near 40 and nights returning to the 20s.

A mild spell will follow for the next weekend, with afternoons in the 50s for the weekend of December 28-29.

For those already thinking about New Year’s Eve, it is still a bit far in advance to suggest significant precipitation, and there is not a lot of data to indicate a polar outbreak is coming. For the time being, expect temperatures near or above normal on New Year’s Eve. 

Normal temperatures during the last week of December are in the upper 40s during the day and near 30 at night.