The dry weather in Richmond goes on.

No significant rain is expected in Richmond through Monday of next week, and perhaps even longer than that, meaning it will be the second consecutive calendar month drier than normal. 

If we get no more measurable rain this month, it will be the 10th driest October on record, with a total of 0.61 inches.

Most of that rain (0.58”) came on the first day of the month, meaning Richmond has now gone three weeks with effectively no significant rain. We managed to squeeze out 0.03 inches on October 15, which keeps us from technically having three consecutive weeks of dry weather, but the ground does not seem to notice.  

Still, this does mean Richmond has gone 3 weeks with less than 0.03 inches of rain.

Fall is infamous for being a dry time of year, as the record for consecutive days with no rain (36) came between the months of October and November in 2001.

Not quite a drought - yet

Because the last half of September was wet and the sun angle is getting lower in the sky, evaporation from soils has not been as dramatic as during our June drought. The state’s streams are running a little bit below normal, and the James River through Richmond has only dropped about half a foot over the last couple of weeks.

Nonetheless, dry conditions have returned. The Virginia Department of Forestry reminds us that fall fire season has started and continues until the end of November. As leaves fall and the ground dries out further, all it takes is a spark or an ember during a breezy afternoon for a wildfire to develop and spread rapidly. 

Two weak disturbances race through during the next week. One comes through Wednesday night and the other on Saturday. In each case, showers are possible, but a legitimate rain of more than a couple of hundredths of an inch is not likely.

Toward the middle of next week, a new dominant cell of high pressure anchors off the New England coast, which will turn our winds from the southeast.  That will likely bring in more clouds, and perhaps some drizzle, but nothing that will soak into the ground or raise creek and stream levels.

Halloween outlook

Beyond the middle of next week, there are conflicting signs of a larger system coming through within a day or two of Halloween that could bring a few hours of rain. But it is far too early to count on that — or to worry about it — if you have evening activities, like trick-or-treating.

Regardless of rain chances, there is no substantial cold coming this Halloween. Early indications are for temperatures in the 60s during the first couple of hours after sunset on Halloween evening. One thing is for sure, you will not need to bring out any winter coats for the rest of this month.

Richmond Octobers are warming

If Halloween has seemed warmer to you over the past several years, the data back you up. 

To reflect weather patterns around Halloween, we examined the 3-day average temperatures in Richmond from October 30 to November 1.

Over the entire 20th century that average was 54.9 degrees, but since then, the average has climbed to 55.9 degrees.

However, it is often the extremes that stick in our minds. During the last quarter of the 20th century, there were six times when that 3-day average was below 50 degrees. Since then, it has happened only three times.

Admittedly, these 3-day periods do not tell us too much about the warming climate, as fall is known for dramatic swings in temperatures over a short amount of time. 

But averaging over a full month tells a different story, as average low temperatures in October have risen about 5 degrees since 1970.

On a broader scale, average October monthly temperatures are also climbing.

Over the 20th century, the average October temperature was 59.0 degrees. So far in the 21st century, the average is 61.2 degrees. Going back to 1880, 3 of the 10 warmest Octobers on record in Richmond have come since 2007. 

Although a cool spell will likely show up during the first week of November, there is no sign of prolonged cold — meaning temperatures below normal — through the second week of November. By then, normal highs are near 60 and normal lows are around 40.

Fair or not, that is good news for procrastinators. If you have been putting off getting the heavy coats out for the winter, you can probably put it off a little longer.