Avula memo cites new poll showing he’s ‘surged into the lead’ in Richmond mayoral race
Dr. Danny Avula’s campaign is telling supporters he’s now the clear frontrunner in Richmond’s mayoral race after a recent internal poll showed a major boost from where he stood in the contest in July.
The memo — which the Richmonder obtained Wednesday from a source unaffiliated with any campaign — says Avula was 10 points behind former Richmond City Council president Michelle Mosby in July and is now 11 points ahead of her.
The memo was dated Oct. 14 and came from the Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group, a prominent Democratic polling firm, and appeared to be circulated as part of a phone call with supporters earlier this week.
The October survey found 34% support for Avula and 23% support for Mosby, a reversal from July when the Avula campaign’s numbers showed Mosby at 24% and Avula at 14%.
“Our survey finds Dr. Avula with notable momentum in the critical closing weeks of the campaign and he has surged into the lead in the mayoral election, more than doubling his support from our July survey,” the firm wrote in a memo addressed to “interested parties.”
Internal polling should be taken with skepticism because campaigns have an incentive to show potential donors they’re building strength. But given the lack of independent public polling on the mayoral candidates, the memo offers rare data points on where the race might stand heading into the final weeks.
The July numbers cited by the Avula campaign are similar to the results of a Mosby campaign poll conducted that month, which found Mosby leading Avula 22% to 16%.
Both the Avula and Mosby campaigns declined to comment.
In the Avula campaign’s survey from this month, software investor and nonprofit founder Harrison Roday had 8% support, while City Councilor and gym owner Andreas Addison had 7%.
Another 27% of respondents were listed in a category described as “Undecided/Other.” The data didn’t include a specific number for community organizer Maurice Neblett.
The data is based on a survey of 400 likely Richmond voters the firm polled between Oct. 7 and Oct. 9 via “landline, cell-phone, and text-to-web” methods, according to the memo. The document didn’t include the full methodology and demographics for the survey, but said the sample of voters was “fully representative of a November general election by key factors such as gender, age, geography, and race.”
Other metrics lend credence to the idea Avula is a top contender and could be the frontrunner to be the city’s next mayor. Avula has raised the most money in the race, and he’s used that cash to get a head start in the advertising wars by running TV and digital ads much earlier than his opponents.
However, the new survey Avula’s campaign cited was completed just as Mosby and Roday started running TV ads of their own, which means it might not have captured the impact of their efforts to boost their visibility with city voters.
The Avula campaign’s memo noted the difficulty of conducting more granular polling to get district-by-district data on the chances of Avula or another candidate winning the necessary five of nine political districts to avoid a runoff election in December. However, the memo said Avula “appears on track to win the minimum five districts needed to be elected mayor in November.”
“Richmonders are clearly reacting to Dr. Avula’s impressive public health background and positive, inclusive agenda, and it is clear the objective for the Avula campaign in the remaining few weeks is to continue increasing Danny’s name ID,” the memo said. “In fact, among the voters who recognize Danny Avula, his vote surpasses 50%.”
Election Day is Nov. 5.
