7 things we’re watching on election night in Richmond
Districts to watch in the mayoral race
Just as in presidential politics, Richmond’s miniature Electoral College system for mayoral elections means the contest could come down to who triumphs in a handful of the city’s nine political districts.
The most competitive districts could be the ones that are most demographically diverse, with a mix of races and income levels that reflect Richmond’s changing population.
That means the North Side’s 3rd District, East End’s 7th District and South Richmond’s 5th District could be the districts that decide the outcome.
The limited polling conducted in the race has shown Dr. Danny Avula and former Richmond City Council President Michelle Mosby as the top two contenders.
Based on demographics and past voting trends, Avula would likely run strongest in the 1st, 2nd, and 4th districts. Mosby’s best areas could be the 6th, 8th and 9th Districts.
However, with five candidates in the running, the vote breakdown is tough to predict. And there’s no guarantee either Mosby or Avula will win every district.
How much turnover will there be on City Council?
Five City Council incumbents — Councilors Anne-Frances Lambert (3rd District), Ellen Robertson (6th District), Cynthia Newbille (7th District), Reva Trammell (8th District) and Nicole Jones (9th District) are all facing one or more challengers. It’s unlikely all five lose. But in theory, up to seven of nine council seats could have new occupants next year.
Even if just a few incumbents go down to defeat, the council would see significant turnover and a sizable group of newcomers, who would add to the fresh start of a new mayor.
If the incumbents mostly hang on, it would send a signal that Richmonders mostly like their current council members, several of whom have been in their seats for well over a decade.
Two newer incumbents – Councilors Katherine Jordan (2nd District) and Stephanie Lynch (5th District) – are guaranteed another term because they’re running unopposed. Two other seats will turn over, with the departure of Council President Kristen Nye (4th District) and Andreas Addison (1st District).
Millennials have an outsized say in RVA
Nationally, the generation referred to as Millennials (born between 1981-1996, current age 27-43) accounts for 27.5% of the voting age population.
In Richmond City, though, Millennials have 38.3% of the vote, according to demographic research by L2 Political.
Anecdotally, these residents are likely to be particularly important in the 2nd District (Scott’s Addition) and 6th District (Manchester).
Note: This item has been updated to reflect that Scott's Addition is in the 2nd District.
